The Most Asymmetrical Large Cap Stock I've Ever Found

An incredibly high-quality value investment in an environment full of greed

A quick look through the U.S Stock Exchanges will present you with many, very large businesses selling for more than 30- and 50-times profits. Any good business selling for even reasonable prices is considered a bargain and those are hard to come by. Buffet has socked cash away in unprecedented amounts, and despite having moved on I believe for the long term from the ultra-low-interest rate environment we are seeing a US market that is priced assuming perfection in its businesses despite real worries. It seems like all hope is lost for value investors.

While it is a completely reasonable response to do some trimming of your stocks, build up cash, and have some patience until some good opportunities present themselves, I do believe there are always some bargains for the dedicated stock shopper, and that this is a special one. This is not financial advice as I do not know your situation, needs, or tolerances, this article is meant to provide you with a starting point for understanding this business, so that if it’s interesting you can do your own research.

*Full disclaimer I used ChatGPT to format this article, I did 100% of the original writing and hypothesis development, and use the tool only after writing the entire article to make my ideas more readable and concise

Kaspi (KSPI): The Most Asymmetrical Large Cap Opportunity I’ve Found

I’ve done more research on Kaspi than any other investment, and I believe it’s the most asymmetrical opportunity among large caps and bigger. It’s a one-of-a-kind situation that most won’t take seriously — and I believe that’s a mistake.

Kaspi is the first and only company from Kazakhstan to list its shares on U.S. exchanges. It’s essentially a conglomerate, but you can broadly sum up its businesses into banking, payment processing, and e-commerce.

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1. From Kazakhstan, with this Financials?

Their valuation almost prices them as if they’re a fraud — that was one of my first concerns given the emerging market origin. But here’s why their numbers are legitimate:

• Audited by Deloitte, one of the Big Four.

• Founder/CEO Mikheil Lomtadze founded and successfully sold an auditing firm to Ernst & Young.

• Kaspi has been listed on the London Stock Exchange (2020–2024) and is now on the Nasdaq, both with high regulatory scrutiny.

• Mikheil and Chairman Vyacheslav Kim each own ~20% of the business — this is their life’s work and represents substantially all of their net worth.

• After listening to Mikheil in interviews and learning the company’s history, it’s clear Kaspi operates with more integrity and care for customers, suppliers, employees, and shareholders than almost any large American business.

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2. The Backstory of Mikheil Lomtadze

Mikheil grew up in Georgia (the country), where he didn’t always have food, but he always had access to education. His parents made sure he was learning — above all else.

He was originally rejected from Harvard Business School, but he flew to Boston, got a 15-minute meeting with the head of admissions, and earned his place the following year. He became one of the first Georgians to graduate from HBS.

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3. Kaspi’s Origins and Culture

Kaspi was originally a large Kazakhstani bank that got into trouble during the Great Recession. Mikheil, then working at a Russian investment firm with a major stake in Kaspi, stepped in as CEO with Vyacheslav as Chairman.

That temporary move became permanent.

Since then, Kaspi has expanded into their super app model and other business lines, with the mission of growing the value of the business while improving the lives of customers.

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4. Growth, Profitability, and Capital Allocation

Kaspi has executed exceptionally:

• Revenue grew from $168M in 2015 to $5.4B today — with 30%+ annual growth nearly every year (except 2020: 17%).

• They operate with a capital-light, highly profitable model, maintaining profit margins between 37–48% since 2019.

• They’ve always had less debt than equity, unlike U.S. banks, and maintain CET1 ratios in the high 10’s of %.

• Returns on equity range from 54–96%, and ROA has been double-digit+ since 2018.

• They reinvest a minority of profits for growth and return the rest to shareholders via dividends. When they recently began expansion into Turkey, they paused the dividend temporarily to have more investment capital, aligning with a long-term focus on investing in itself.

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5. Two Stories That Define Kaspi’s Culture

a. The Currency Crisis of 2014

When Kazakhstan’s currency was intentionally devalued in 2014, many banks shut down and made it hard to withdraw money. Kaspi did the opposite — they stayed open, served customers efficiently, offered snacks, pizza, and drinks to people waiting, and Mikheil himself visited branches.

This built enormous trust, reduced customer panic, and created lasting goodwill.

b. Shutting Down a Profitable Service

In 2017, Kaspi shut down one of its most profitable lending products because it had consistently negative NPS (Net Promoter Scores). Mikheil said:

“If we can’t deliver a great experience, we shouldn’t be in that business. It was profitable, but it wasn’t right for our customers.”

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6. Radical Customer Obsession

Kaspi’s product teams aren’t evaluated by financial KPIs like revenue or ROI. Instead, they obsess over customer experience. They rely heavily on millions of continuous NPS surveys, and focus on two questions:

1. “How likely are you to recommend Kaspi to a friend or colleague?”

2. “Tell us what we could do better.”

If a product doesn’t reach top-tier scores compared to global peers, they improve it — or shut it down.

Mikheil put their company’s philosophy about customer obsession like this:

“In a country like Kazakhstan, if 1–2 million people don’t like your business, you die.”

This focus has helped them become the most dominant player in Kazakhstan. 95%+ of adults use Kaspi monthly, and 60% use it daily. Over time they have developed all of their business lines into this one “super app” which provides many functions in one place all at a high standard. Kapsi isn’t the only business that operates like this, think Mercado Libre, and WeChat in China. Competition is allowed — but Kaspi outperformed Visa, Mastercard, local banks, and e-commerce players — for one reason:

Because They Deserve It.

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7. The Super App That Built Itself

Kaspi combines what Americans get from Amazon, Visa, Booking.com, Carvana, Bank of America, UberEats, Venmo, and Ticketmaster — and adds even more (like paying bills, filing taxes, peer-to-peer transfers, etc. all for free). Not only do you get an incredible management & culture aligned with shareholders at a great value with obscene profitability, but you are essentially getting ten different moaty businesses in one. Network effects stacked up on network effects, stacked up on scale advantages and extreme brand goodwill.

Mikheil puts it this way:

“We didn’t set out to build a super app, but our customers kept asking for more things inside the app. So we just kept adding them.”

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8. Customers Get More Valuable Over Time

Kaspi’s investor presentations show clearly that over time:

• Over time each customer on average uses more&more of Kaspi’s services.

• Over time each customers transacts more frequently.

• Economic value per user increases multiple times from signup to year 5.

This is a huge long-term growth driver, in addition as newer business lines like e-grocery and food delivery are scaling up.

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9. Expansion Into Turkey

Kaspi recently acquired 66% of a major e-commerce company in Turkey, at a fair price, with similar values. They’ve also acquired a banking license to expand further.

While Turkey is more populous than Kazakhstan and has a higher total GDP, it comes with serious challenges — including extreme currency volatility, civil unrest, and extreme economic instability.

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10. Kazakhstan: A Hidden Strength

Kazakhstan, the 8th largest country by land mass, has:

• A relatively stable macro environment.

• A rising GDP per capita which is very close to China’s.

• Steady improvements toward a freer political and economic system.

• Increased foreign investment (e.g., Chevron).

• Major oil and uranium reserves, which pose both risks and opportunities.

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11. The Thesis

Turkey is pure upside optionality. If it works, Kaspi could become exponentially more valuable.

But the investment doesn’t depend on it.

If you're a short-term investor focused on near-term profits, Turkey might seem like a distraction, but it’s just another potential growth avenue that could have a big payoff and, on the downside, would just get shut down and you still have the great business in Kazakhstan. If you’re looking for a long-term ownership-worthy business with fantastic economics, moats on moats, a special culture, and a great valuation, you should look further into Kapsi

They can grow earnings 2–4x from:

• Increasing value per user

• Continued scaling of newer rapidly growing business lines

All while trading at just 7.7x trailing earnings and 6.8x forward earnings.

I estimate a PEG ratio of 0.5. Kaspi doesn’t need Turkish success to be a fantastic investment. They’re priced for negative growth, but even stable earnings would justify today’s valuation.

With high integrity, unmatched customer focus, and dominant positioning, Kaspi is selling at an incredibly pessimistic price — and the disconnect is the opportunity.

If you’d like to learn a little more about Kaspi I’d recommend by first listening to Mikheil’s interview on the business breakdowns podcast to really learn about the culture, businesses, history, and goals of Kaspi

Margin of Wisdom